Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions? - Joel Smith

Chia sẻ

Manage episode 326122220 series 2824507
Thông tin tác giả Joel Smith & Joe Baker, Joel Smith, and Joe Baker được phát hiện bởi Player FM và cộng đồng của chúng tôi - bản quyền thuộc sở hữu của nhà sản xuất (publisher), không thuộc về Player FM, và audio được phát trực tiếp từ máy chủ của họ. Bạn chỉ cần nhấn nút Theo dõi (Subscribe) để nhận thông tin cập nhật từ Player FM, hoặc dán URL feed vào các ứng dụng podcast khác.

Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions?

Heuristics - Instinctual Conclusions
Prioritizes Efficiency before Certainty

1. Binary Based Conclusions

· Black & White, True or False, Yes or No

· If it's what I see, it must be

· Based on subjective observation

· Downside - Not everything is as it seems, most things don’t fall into extremes,

2. Convenience Based Conclusions

· Bias Alignment fits with what you already want to believe.

· Does it agree with my presuppositions?

· Based on subjective opinion.

· Downside - Lacks objectivity, skewes context.

3. Conditional Based Conclusions

· Answer Depends on clarification of question.

· "It Depends", If / Then statements.

· Based on contingency outcome.

· Downside - Can be used for control or manipulation

Critical Thinking - Mindful Conclusions
Prioritizes Certainty over Efficiency

4. Investigative Based Conclusions.

· Multiple possible outcomes. There is a truth to find.

· Where Does the evidence lead?

· Based on process of elimination.

· Downside - Time consuming, may never resolve

5. Causational Based Conclusions

· Search for the Root Cause, Logic / Reason.

· The Why?, Motivation? Error?

· Based on the process of determination.

· Downside - Proof is hard to find, Leads to speculations

6. Probability Based Conclusions

· Variable unprovable outcomes.

· Statistical Likelihood, Odds / Trends

· Based on research and analysis.

· Info can be manipulated & misused

Conclusion – We all need to be using the right tool to have the best chance at the best conclusion.

121 tập