Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions? - Joel Smith

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Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions?

Heuristics - Instinctual Conclusions
Prioritizes Efficiency before Certainty

1. Binary Based Conclusions

· Black & White, True or False, Yes or No

· If it's what I see, it must be

· Based on subjective observation

· Downside - Not everything is as it seems, most things don’t fall into extremes,

2. Convenience Based Conclusions

· Bias Alignment fits with what you already want to believe.

· Does it agree with my presuppositions?

· Based on subjective opinion.

· Downside - Lacks objectivity, skewes context.

3. Conditional Based Conclusions

· Answer Depends on clarification of question.

· "It Depends", If / Then statements.

· Based on contingency outcome.

· Downside - Can be used for control or manipulation

Critical Thinking - Mindful Conclusions
Prioritizes Certainty over Efficiency

4. Investigative Based Conclusions.

· Multiple possible outcomes. There is a truth to find.

· Where Does the evidence lead?

· Based on process of elimination.

· Downside - Time consuming, may never resolve

5. Causational Based Conclusions

· Search for the Root Cause, Logic / Reason.

· The Why?, Motivation? Error?

· Based on the process of determination.

· Downside - Proof is hard to find, Leads to speculations

6. Probability Based Conclusions

· Variable unprovable outcomes.

· Statistical Likelihood, Odds / Trends

· Based on research and analysis.

· Info can be manipulated & misused

Conclusion – We all need to be using the right tool to have the best chance at the best conclusion.