Inflation Head Fake?

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Inflation surprised to the upside last week. Although it was close to the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast estimate. So, what would it take for inflation to get back to the 2% level and when? We’ll go through the numbers today to illustrate what rate of monthy inflation would be needed to get there buy the spring. Its just math, so here we see the Feds base rates come into plan.

How is inflation month over month calculated?

How is inflation year over year calculated?

How do month to month and year over year numbers matter for future inflation?

What is the difference between CPI and Core CPI?

Why Core CPI might keep going higher for a while due to lagging affect

What is OER or Owners Equivalent Rent?

Mentioned in this Episode:

Inflation Nowcast Cleveland Fed https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx

Do markets go up after midterm elections? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/do-markets-always-go-up-after-midterm-elections/id1432836154?i=1000579103232

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

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