Những podcast Weekly Economics hay nhất (2024)

1
Overcooked inflation fears, the end of the excess savings debate and a global markets briefing 29:10

5d ago29:10

29:10

In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing assesses just how much the global inflation picture has really changed in the wake of that US March CPI print. He talks to David Wilder about which central banks are likely to cut when, previews a busy week of economic data and explains why a s…

1
Janet Yellen's Beijing trip and the Chinese overcapacity threat 19:30

11d ago19:30

19:30

Janet Yellen lent official voice to resurgent global worries about the threat of Chinese overcapacity when she pointedly criticised Beijing’s overinvestment and underpowered consumption during her trip there earlier this month. But are the US Treasury Secretary’s criticisms justified? Will China’s leaders push through the necessary reforms to bring…

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Emerging markets special: An EM risk early warning system and EMs and the green transition 20:11

18d ago20:11

20:11

The EM team has taken over the podcast this week to highlight two of the biggest issues in emerging market investing. William Jackson talks to Shilan Shah about how emerging market economies will fare as fossil fuels are phased out in favour of green technologies. From oil producers in the Gulf and Africa to geopolitics and supply chains, William a…

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Baltimore bridge collapse, our Global Economic Outlook, Trump vs Canada and Mexico and more 24:49

29d ago24:49

24:49

Before Neil Shearing gets on to discussing the key takeaways from our latest Global Economic Outlook, he talks to David Wilder about the inflationary risks stemming from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge at Baltimore’s port. The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also explains what to make of the apparent contradiction of US busines…

1
What’s gone wrong with the German economy? 18:32

1M ago18:32

18:32

Germany's economy is in “troubled waters” and doing “dramatically badly” – and those are just the assessments of its economy minister. But are the recessionary conditions in the euro-zone’s biggest economy merely a cyclical blip or signs of deeper structural malaise? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief…

1
Fed week! The BoJ’s big moment, TikTok and fracturing, Putin’s war economy and more 22:42

1M ago22:42

22:42

A few hot(ish) US inflation prints has spooked the market about how easily the Federal Reserve can get back to its 2% target. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses whether those fears are justified and tells David Wilder what to expect from the coming week’s meetings from…

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The coming collapse of Chinese construction and Fed rate cuts vs the stock bubble 24:47

2M ago24:47

24:47

The good news is our China team has solved a mystery about Chinese property construction: why has it held up so well, even as sales and starts have collapsed? The bad news is that their conclusions point to a painful adjustment with massive implications for China’s growth and policy outlook. With Neil Shearing out this week, Chief Asia Economist Ma…

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The coming clash over Chinese oversupply, the UK budget vs the bond market, the carbon price outlook and more 29:51

2M ago29:51

29:51

China. Inflation. Trump. In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Neil Shearing addresses some of the questions which kept coming up during a recent round of client meetings in the Middle East and Asia. (00.00-10:15) Also on the show, Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team preview the coming week’s Spring Budget a…

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Trump trade wars, stock market bubbles, Japan's market comeback and the world in 2050 30:37

2M ago30:37

30:37

For all the blustering about trade wars, the fact is that Donald Trump’s punitive actions against China during his presidency didn’t do much to hurt its economy. But it’ll be a very different story if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to slap tariffs up to 60% on Chinese imports. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wil…

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How to think about recessions, fiscal shackles, financial instability risks and more 18:43

2M ago18:43

18:43

In a week in which UK and Japanese data both confirmed two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the concept of “recessions” can be unhelpful in understanding the state of economies. He also tells David Wilder why, whoever wins in upcoming elections, governments on both sides of the Atlantic are l…

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Inflation rebound risk, bank real estate exposure, Trump trade wars and dollar and EM outlooks 35:14

2M ago35:14

35:14

We’re trying a ‘quickfire round’ on this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to get Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing answering the questions that clients have been asking most frequently in recent days: Could inflation rebound? Could escalation in the Middle East drive up inflation? Are falling commercial real estate val…

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A bumper US jobs report, central banks and labour markets and that wave of US CRE loans 25:18

3M ago25:18

25:18

If Jerome Powell dampened talk of a March rate cut on Wednesday then the January payrolls report on Friday stamped it out for good. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing dives into the latest US jobs numbers to discuss what they say about the health of the labour market and what the…

1
Fed week! China's stimulus blizzard, Houthi inflation risk and more 27:00

3M ago27:00

27:00

Post-ECB and pre-Fed and Bank of England meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what 'data dependency' means for central banks as they try to gauge when to begin rate cuts – and to manage the market’s expectations about when those cuts will start. David Wilder is also joined by Deputy Chief Global Economist Simon MacAdam to discuss …

1
Inflation's "last mile", an ECB preview, China data discrepancies, and maximum bullish on US stocks 24:03

3M ago24:03

24:03

Why are markets pushing back on rate cut expectations? How will the ECB play its upcoming meeting? What’s really happening to China’s economy? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the big macro and market questions in our latest episode of The Weekly Briefing. Plus, our forecast for the S&P 500 this year is one of the most bullish in the mar…

1
Macro in a more dangerous world, UK CPI preview, bond vigilantes, and the US energy export surge 22:17

3M ago22:17

22:17

With US and UK strikes on Houthis in the headlines and Taiwanese voting in their flashpoint election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpicks what the now- clichéd idea that we live in a “more dangerous world” actually means for thinking through macro risk. He discusses with David Wilder our framework for looking at a world that’s fracturing in…

1
2024’s uncertain start, US CPI preview, Taiwan's flashpoint election and more 23:13

4M ago23:13

23:13

The Fed-triggered financial market exuberance which ended 2023 hasn’t carried into the new year, with yields rising and equities struggling. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what’s changed – and what hasn’t – to explain this mood shift. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Neil also talks to David Wilder about the latest euro-…

1
The Fed gifts the bond market, the EM growth outlook and that COP28 agreement 28:31

4M ago28:31

28:31

After the Fed supercharged the bond market’s recovery, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about issues around 2024’s flagged rate cuts, including the impact of loosening financial conditions as investors front-run policymakers, whether “team transitory” has been proved right, and why the ECB and Bank of England are still soun…

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What could go wrong in 2024, the BoE on Table Mountain and the US housing outlook 23:39

5M ago23:39

23:39

The same questions kept coming up in our client briefings on the 2024 outlook and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles them in this latest episode of our weekly podcast. He talks about why economic resilience will be increasingly tested and which DM central banks are likely to cut rates first, but also talks about what could go wrong for our…

1
Where to spot fiscal risks and how to think about US-China economic competition 24:44

5M ago24:44

24:44

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing warns the potential threat to fiscal positions from higher rates is “perhaps the most important question hanging over the outlook for the next couple of years”. In this episode, he speaks to Head of Research Vicky Redwood and Andrew Kenningham, Chief Europe Economist, about the size and scope of that threat, incl…

1
2024: Weaker growth, cooler inflation, lower rates 26:07

5M ago26:07

26:07

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles what we think will be the key themes for the global economy in 2024, including why the consensus for growth is too optimistic, how quickly the Fed could cut rates and how to think about the macro and market consequences of a full slate of elections. Plus, with COP 28 about to get underway in Dubai, Climat…

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Special episode – Argentina's election: Shock result...shock therapy? 9:07

5M ago9:07

9:07

Does the surprise victory of Javier Milei in Argentina's presidential election mean the country is about to experience a raft of unorthodox economic policymaking to fix its ailing economy? How likely is Milei's dollarisation plan? What does this electoral victory mean for Argentina's negotiations with the IMF? In this special episode of The Capital…

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Flavours of recession, Xi vs Biden vs Trump, Jeremy Hunt’s big dilemma 34:14

5M ago34:14

34:14

After nearly two years of monetary tightening, debate rages over whether advanced economies are heading for recession. However, as Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder in this latest episode, recessions come in more flavours than the two sequential quarters of negative growth that have come to define them. Plus, in the wake of tha…

1
Calls for 2024, deglobalised pandas, Saudi’s shifting allegiances 27:37

6M ago27:37

27:37

Central bankers have a tough task when it comes to communicating with markets – just ask the Bank of England’s Huw Pill, who started the week hinting at rate cuts and ended it with an insistence that the current setting has to remain in place to quash inflation. In this week’s episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing delves into the challenges …

1
What the global data say, what the central banks said, and Italy’s debt balloon 30:24

6M ago30:24

30:24

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back to discuss what the recent data say about the global economic outlook – including October US payrolls and China PMIs – and what to expect from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England following their decisions to keep rates unchanged over the past week. Neil also explains why a persistent focus on the threats to …

1
Fed week, the US economic outlook and financial markets at war 23:56

6M ago23:56

23:56

It's Fed week and Deputy Chief US Economist Andrew Hunter joins David Wilder to discuss what to expect from the Tuesday-Wednesday FOMC meeting, including how the recent surge in long bond yields could influence the decision and accompanying language. Andrew also talks about the new House Speaker and whether Mike Johnson's appointment lowers the ris…

1
5% Treasury yields, geopolitics vs the Fed, China’s dollar dilemma, an AI stock bubble and more 33:39

6M ago33:39

33:39

With the 10-year Treasury yield finally hitting 5%, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the macro risks around rising bond yields, telling David Wilder what this all means for central banks. He also talks about how policymakers manage geopolitical uncertainty in light of Israel’s conflict with Hamas and talks about how events in the Middle…

1
Special episode: AI and the global economic order 19:48

6M ago19:48

19:48

Which countries are leading the AI race? What role is AI playing amid growing strategic competition between the US and China? Does AI spell doom for EM outsourcing industries? Moneli Hall-Harris from our Consultancy division and Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah talk to David Wilder about our AI Economic Impact Index and what its rankings say a…

1
Israel-Gaza and heightened geo-economic risk and what to expect in the post-pandemic rates era 26:05

7M ago26:05

26:05

The surprise attack on Israel by Hamas last weekend upended a lot of geopolitical assumptions, but what will this mean for the economic and markets outlook? Liam Peach, a senior economist on our Macro team, and Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain join David Wilder to talk through the local and regional economic risks around the conflict and t…

1
How much more pain for bond markets? 19:06

7M ago19:06

19:06

That September US payrolls report has triggered renewed selling in global bond markets. With yields threatening to hit fresh multi-year highs and investors scrambling for reasons behind the sell-off, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann tell David Wilder just worried we should be and what’s likely …

1
The global economic outlook, or why "higher for longer" won't last 21:55

7M ago21:55

21:55

Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown provides a sneak peek of our upcoming Q4 Global Economic Outlook. She tells David Wilder why “higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness and also explains why monetary tightening hasn’t had the direct and immediate impact that had been expected. Jenny also previews our upcoming work on neutral interes…

1
Special Episode: Is AI coming for our jobs? 20:57

7M ago20:57

20:57

From hope to reality to hype and hysteria. The rapid development and adoption of generative artificial intelligence may be keeping headline writers busy, but is there anything to their warnings about the technology’s roll-out leading to mass unemployment? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Senior Economic Advisor Vicky Redwood and Depu…

1
AI’s productivity boom, central bank rhetoric vs reality, recession risk and more 25:20

7M ago25:20

25:20

The potential of artificial intelligence to reshape the global economy is more than just the breathless hype of headline writers. Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, explains why AI’s impact should be thought of in terms of previous technological developments such as railways and the desktop computer and how they transformed economies…

1
After rate hikes, US economy anomaly, EU vs Chinese EVs and more 20:01

7M ago20:01

20:01

We think the Fed and ECB have ended their tightening cycles, and that the Bank of England's will be over by the end of this week. With hikes over, attention invariably turns to when rates could be cut. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why investors hoping for clues on timing from central bankers are going to be disappointed. He also tel…

1
Huawei’s chip surprise, the energy price spike, Nvidia in India, UK vs Germany 20:04

8M ago20:04

20:04

For consumers, it’s the camera lenses on the outside that may draw them to Huawei's Mate 60 Pro. For those tracking shifts in the global macro narrative, it’s the chip inside the sanctioned Chinese firm’s newest flagship phone that’s most interesting. In the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what on…

1
September's rate decisions, China's stepped up stimulus, and the AI race 19:54

8M ago19:54

19:54

As summer holidays draw to a close attention is quickly turning to September’s big central bank decisions. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and the team have been sifting through weeks of data from the US, euro-zone and UK to assess what the Fed, ECB and Bank of England are going to do when they sit down to decide their next moves on rates. He t…

1
Signs of trouble, equities off the boil, those Nvidia earnings and AI’s promise 20:00

8M ago20:00

20:00

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing walks through the summer’s big market themes to discuss the growth outlook, the China slowdown scares and whether the hype around AI is justified. Along the way, he gives his take on the latest PMI readings, explains the problem with China stimulus hopes and previews our forthcoming work on the impact of artifici…

1
The bond market disconnect, the fiscal policy outlook and an exclusive China briefing 29:38

8M ago29:38

29:38

Government bond yields have been hitting multi-year highs even though data show inflation in retreat and central bankers are preparing to down tools – if they haven’t already. Why the disconnect? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about what’s been happening in the bond market, whether this is why some EMs have been strugglin…

1
Chinese deflation, US July CPI and commodities markets feel the pinch 18:32

9M ago18:32

18:32

While China’s latest price reports have markets worrying about deflation, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing thinks the real issue is what’s happening in core inflation against a backdrop of a struggling economy. He also reviews the “immaculate” July CPI report from the US and what means for the Fed and previews the UK CPI report for July due this…

1
Disinflation's mystery, China's structural slowdown and Argentina's risky vote 26:29

9M ago26:29

26:29

Economies aren’t doing what Economics 101 says they should be doing, with disinflationary evidence piling up, even as labour markets remain in relatively good shape. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about the sell-off in the bond market, potential paths to a soft landing, and the key messages from the July non-farm payrolls…

1
How big a threat are Chinese EVs to Japan Inc.? 21:33

9M ago21:33

21:33

It was one of those turning points in the global economy which deserved more attention: Chinese passenger car exports exceeded Japan’s this past May, powered by the country’s rapidly-expanding electric vehicle sector. It’s a marker of China’s increasing dominance in this emerging industry, and another sign of Japan’s struggles to make more headway,…

1
How far will the ECB go to slay its ‘greedy beast’? 25:54

9M ago25:54

25:54

The euro-zone may be mired in recession, but that won’t stop the ECB from raising rates again this coming week in order to get inflation – a “greedy beast”, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – under control. Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist Jack Allen-Reynolds tells David Wilder why another 25 basis point hikes is a done deal for this …

1
Is the inflation crisis over? 24:17

9M ago24:17

24:17

Markets cheered the US June inflation report, with equities rising and yields falling on solid evidence that the forces that drove core inflation to a four-decade high are in retreat. But is the crisis really over? How will the Fed respond in July and subsequent meetings? And what does the US experience say about the UK and European outlooks? In th…

1
What lies ahead for the global economy and markets? 25:10

10M ago25:10

25:10

We've just published our Q3 Outlook reports for the global economy and markets. They tell a fairly grim near-term story of inflation, recession and weaker equities prices. But there's nuance within that narrative, including emerging markets outperformance and a much, much brighter outlook for stocks beyond 2023. Ariane Curtis and Tom Mathews speak …

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Are greedy firms behind the inflation crisis? 22:18

10M ago22:18

22:18

Accusations of ‘greedflation’ are flying thick and fast, fuelling public anger over rising prices, putting executives on the defensive and pressuring politicians to do something. But are companies really taking advantage of inflation’s return to maximise profits? Simon MacAdam, a Senior Economist on our Global Economics team, has just completed in-…

1
Is the UK a stagflation outlier? 19:30

10M ago19:30

19:30

After that shock CPI report and the Bank of England’s aggressive response, Neil Shearing discusses whether the UK is a high inflation-slow growth outlier. Along with his survey of the latest advanced economy data, the Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also talks about what EM central banks have been doing right. And he explains why, despite s…

1
Property Special – How much more pain to come? 31:43

10M ago31:43

31:43

In this special episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, our team of property economists explain how commercial and housing markets are faring in a world of rapid and large increases in interest rates. Taking in everything from the crisis in the US banking system to panic around UK inflation, the team discuss what’s been happening on both …

1
What are our clients asking us about? 21:00

10M ago21:00

21:00

China data for May fell short of expectations and Capital Economics clients want to know what the government’s going to do about it. Our China Drop-In was one of two online briefings we held for them last week, along with our post-Fed, post-ECB, pre-Bank of England briefing. In this special episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles some …

1
Why is this economic cycle so weird? 18:47

11M ago18:47

18:47

These are not normal economic times and that makes the job of policymakers – and economists – that much harder. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about why this cycle is unlike any other, but also why it's likely to end in recession. Plus, the headline were all about LIV Golf, the PGA Tour and Karim Benzema, but the other bi…

1
What's really been behind the US stock market rally? 20:11

11M ago20:11

20:11

US stocks ended the week with a broad rally in the wake of the May jobs report, but the S&P 500’s performance this year has been mostly dictated by the outsized strength of just a handful of giant tech firms. Oliver Allen and Adam Hoyes from our Financial Markets team talk to David Wilder about what’s really been happening under the hood of the US …

1
How did a UK recession just get more likely? 23:31

11M ago23:31

23:31

Neil Shearing says the UK’s April CPI report was a “horrorshow”. The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist tells David Wilder why sticky inflation readings make recession more likely – despite the popular view that a downturn can be avoided – while previewing May inflation data for the euro-zone and the US non-farm payrolls report. Plus, the repo…

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