We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
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Ep. 232: Bob Elliott on US Recession Odds, Fed Policy and Equity Risks
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Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team fo…
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Ep. 231: J. Doyne Farmer on Making Sense of Chaos
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J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics Programme and Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His book, Making…
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Ep. 230: Shawn Edwards on How Bloomberg Is Using AI
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Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns…
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Ep. 229: Brad Setser on Yen Carry Trade, US-China Trade, and US Profit Offshoring
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Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. He regularly blogs at Follow the Money. Brad served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022, where…
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Ep. 228: Liang Ding on China’s Economy and Markets
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My colleague Mirza Baig hosted this podcast on my behalf. Liang is a markets professional, with 20 years’ experience as a portfolio manager, quantitative analyst, currency strategist, and China economist. He has spent most of his career based in Germany, where he earned his PhD and worked at several asset managers including DWS. Liang recently retu…
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Ep. 227: Álvaro Cartea on AI Manipulating Markets (and What to Do About It)
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Álvaro Cartea is Professor of Mathematical Finance in the Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, and director of the Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance. He is a founding member and deputy chairman of the Commodities & Energy Markets Association (CEMA). Before coming to Oxford, Álvaro was Reader in Mathematical Finance at University…
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Ep. 226: Gary Gerstle on Kamala Impact, Trump Policies and Political Realignments
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Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government f…
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Ep. 225: Dr Pippa Malmgren on Trump’s Plans, Peace Dividend, and Space Tech
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Dr. Pippa Malmgren is an economist who makes sense of the world economy by writing books, founding tech businesses, advising policymakers around the world and through public speaking and teaching. She lectures at Sandhurst and is a Founder member of the Lunar University, a NASA-originated project to ensure the first human institution on the moon re…
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Ep. 224: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz on Macro Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
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Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm’s New York office. Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He co-leads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York. They have recently published a new book, ‘Shocks, C…
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Ep. 223: Shahin Vallée on French Election Fallout, Second Round Scenarios, and Germany’s Debt Brake
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My colleague Henry Occelston hosted this podcast on my behalf. Shahin Vallée is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (a German think tank) and also a Board Member overseeing Europe coverage at the Observatory group, a geopolitical macro-advisory firm. He was previously an economic advisor to the President of the European Counc…
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Ep. 222: Boris Vladimirov on US Exceptionalism, Europe Risks and China Weakness
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Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress, and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell side, which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris gives his personal opinions and not those of Gold…
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Ep. 221: Vasileios Gkionakis on European Election Fallout, Fed and Fiscal Risks
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Vasileios is Head of Europe Economics and Strategy at Aviva Investors – a £226bn global asset management firm. Based in London, he is responsible for monitoring and analysing macroeconomic developments and markets as well as formulating major asset class views, leading research and strategy in the UK and Europe. Previously, he held senior research …
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Ep. 220: George Selgin on Fed Independence, Poor Operations and Inflation
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George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia. He is the author of numerous books, including ‘The Theory of Free Banking’, ‘Floored! How a Misguided Fed Experiment Deepened and Prolonged the Great Rec…
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Ep. 219: Jason Furman on Inflation Persistence, Fed Policy and Debt Levels
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Jason Furman is the Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University. He is also non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Previously, Furman served eight years as a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, …
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Ep. 218: Gordon Hanson on US-China Trade War, Immigration and US Elections
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Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS). He is also chair of the Social and Urban Policy Area at HKS, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Gordon’s current research addresses the causes and consequences of regional jo…
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Ep. 217: Mustafa Chowdhury on Surging Wealth, Hidden Bond Buyers and Fed Mistakes
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Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-Head of Asset-Liabilit…
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Ep. 216: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Inflation Persistence, Immigration Surge and Trump Effect
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Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode cov…
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Ep. 215: Nick Rohatyn on How to Navigate Emerging Markets Investing
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Nick Rohatyn is Founder and serves as Chief Executive Officer of The Rohatyn Group. TRG is a global asset manager specialising in emerging markets and real assets, with over $8bn in assets under management. Prior to founding TRG in 2002, Nick spent 19-years at J.P. Morgan, including 5 years as a member of J.P. Morgan’s executive management team, ho…
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Ep. 214: Lindsay Politi on Higher Inflation Regime, Recession Risks and Debt Dynamics
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Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess i…
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Ep. 213: Bilal Hafeez on Fed Cuts, Dollar Strength and AI Hype
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Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business Scho…
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Ep. 212: Nick Baltas on Mastering Systematic Strategies from Alpha to AI
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Nick Baltas is a managing director and head of R&D, cross-asset delta-one and commodity systematic trading strategies at Goldman Sachs. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs in 2017, Nick was an executive director in the quantitative research unit of UBS. Previously, he was a lecturer in finance at Imperial College Business School, a visiting lecturer at …
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Ep. 211: John Coates on How a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything
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John Coates is the Deputy Dean of Harvard Law School. He has served at the Securities and Exchange Commission, and was a partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, specializing in financial institutions. He has testified before Congress and provided consulting services to the Department of Justice, the Department of Treasury, and the New York Stock…
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Ep. 210: Mark Koyama on What Makes Some Nations Richer Than Others
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This podcast is sponsored by Supernormal (Supernormal - AI That Writes Your Meeting Notes/https://supernormal.com/). Mark Koyama is Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Mercatus Center. Mark earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford. He focuses on how historical institutions functioned and on the relations…
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Ep. 209: Darrell Duffie on Treasury Market Dysfunction, Dollar Dominance and CBDC
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Darrell Duffie is a leading expert on bond markets. He is the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. He has been on the finance faculty at Stanford since receiving his Ph.D. from Stanford in 1984. He is author of several books, including ‘Fragmenting Markets: Pos…
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Ep. 208: David Dredge on Inflation, Underpriced Risks and Sharpe Ratio Flaws
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David Dredge is the Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, which is an agnostic value investor in volatility. David has over 30 years experience managing risk across global markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, David served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore, where he was responsib…
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Ep. 207: Dave DeWalt on Cyber Warfare, Attacks on US Election, and AI
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Dave DeWalt is Founder, CEO, and Managing Director of NightDragon, an investment and advisory firm focused on growth and late-stage cybersecurity, safety, security, and privacy companies. Before NightDragon, Dave helped create more than $20 billion in shareholder value during his 15-plus years as President and CEO of Documentum, McAfee, and FireEye…
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Ep. 206: Nigel Toon on How AI Thinks and How We Can Control It
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This podcast is sponsored by Supernormal (https://supernormal.com/). Nigel Toon is the founder of Graphcore, which builds unique IPU chips designed for AI. He sits as a Non-Executive Director on the board of the UK Research and Innovation Council and has sat on the UK Prime Minister’s Business Council. He has been ranked #1 on Business Insider’s UK…
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Ep. 205: Gary Gerstle on Unprecedented Trump, Unrecognised Biden, and Unusual Times
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Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government f…
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Ep. 204: Claudia Sahm on Inflation Risks, Fed Cuts, and Recession
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Claudia Sahm is a well-known, highly regarded, Washington-based expert on monetary and fiscal policy and forecasting. She has advised decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. She created a widely used and highly accurate recession indicator, the Sahm rule. Sahm is the founder of Stay-at-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting. Previo…
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Ep. 203: Melanie Mitchell on Can Artificial Intelligence Beat Human Thinking
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Melanie Mitchell is one of the leading AI researchers in the world. She is Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. Her current research focuses on conceptual abstraction and analogy-making in artificial intelligence systems. Melanie is the author or editor of six books and numerous scholarly papers in the fields of artificial intelligence, cognitive s…
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Ep. 202: Alberto Gallo on Trump, Fiscal Risks, and Market Outlook
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Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and Lon…
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Ep. 201: Henry Ritchotte on Managing Banks, Start-Ups, and the New Investment Era
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Henry Ritchotte is the Founder of RitMir Ventures, investing in financial services businesses with a focus on regulatory- and technology-driven business models. Before that, Henry served as Chief Digital Officer of Deutsche Bank, creating the blueprint for a digital challenger bank within Deutsche Bank. Previously, Henry was Chief Operating Officer…
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Ep. 200: Julia Azari on Trump’s Dictatorial Powers, Biden’s Unpopularity, and US Elections
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Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Chan…
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Ep. 199: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Fed Slashing Rates and Trump Winning
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Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode cov…
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Ep. 198: Chris Rauh on How to Use AI to Predict Conflicts
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Chris Rauh is a Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge. He works with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling. He co-founded conflictforecast.org and has conducted projects for Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the German Foreign Office, an…
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Ep. 197: John Floyd on the Biggest Trades and Risks for 2024
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John was previously Head of Macro Strategies at Record Currency Management, an $80 billion currency manager. Prior to that, John was Chairman and CIO of Floyd Plus Currency Fund. Before that, John was a Senior Macro Proprietary Trader at Deutsche Bank and Senior Portfolio Manager at the highly successful $3bn Swiss Bank Currency Fund. John’s succes…
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Ep. 196: Rerelease: Niall Ferguson on Cold War 2, Middle East Conflict and Woke Students
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This podcast was recorded in March 2023. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History. He is the author of sixteen books. This includes the international be…
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Ep. 195: Bilal Hafeez on 2023 Surprises, Getting AI Right, and Best TV of 2023
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Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business Scho…
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Ep. 194: Liang Ding on Can China Avoid a Hard Landing
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Liang is currently based in Shanghai and has close to twenty years of market experience as a currency strategist, China economist, portfolio manager, and quant analyst. He has worked for DWS, Sal Oppenheim, and Union Invest. This week's podcast covers: sentiment on the streets of Shanghai, how the China economy performed over 2023, more supply than…
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Shiloh Bates on Demystifying CLO Myths
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Shiloh Bates is the Chief Investment Officer of Flat Rock Global in 2018 – a $750mn credit manager. Prior to joining Flat Rock Global, Shiloh was a Managing Director at Benefit Street Partners, and Head of Structured Products at BDCA Advisor. During his 20-year career, Shiloh has worked for several CLO managers and invested over $1.5 billion in CLO…
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Yesha Yadav on Crypto Bankruptcies, Stablecoin, and Treasury Market issues
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Yesha Yadav is Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University Law School. She is one of the world’s leading experts on financial and securities regulation. Before Vanderbilt, Yesha worked as legal counsel with the World Bank and before that she practiced regulatory and derivatives law at Clifford Chance. This week's podcast covers key…
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Greg Lippmann on The Big Short, Latest US Housing View, and Finding Alpha in Structured Products
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Greg Lippmann is the Managing Founding Partner and the Chief Investment Officer of the $9.8bn asset management firm, LibreMax. Prior to founding LibreMax, Greg was head of all non-agency RMBS, ABS, and CDO trading globally at Deutsche Bank. His prescient call on the subprime crisis was immortalized in the book and film The Big Short. In the film, G…
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Charlie McElligott on Year-End Rally, Duration Buying, and Carnivore Diets
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Charlie McElligott is the leading expert on all things positioning, flow, sentiment, and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years’ experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-As…
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Dr Douglas Greenig on Trend-Following, the End of Pax-Americana, and Why He ls Long Volatility
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Dr Douglas Greenig is the CEO, CIO, and founder of Florin Court Capital, a systematic, trend-following asset manager uniquely broad in its focus on over 500 markets. Doug has over 25 years of experience in portfolio management and trading. Prior to founding Florin Court, Doug started in markets on Goldman Sachs’ bond arbitrage proprietary desk thro…
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Marc Goldwein on the Unprecedented US Budget Problem and How to Fix It
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Marc Goldwein is the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, where he guides and conducts research on a wide array of topics related to fiscal policy and the federal budget. He works regularly with Members of Congress and their staffs on budget-related issues. In this podcast we discuss: …
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Macro Hive Webinar: (The Weekly Call Recorded 1 November 2023)
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This week we have a special podcast episode for you! Listen to the Macro Hive Pro Markets Webinar and hear the key views of our leading researchers on their respective markets. This week, US macro expert Dominique Dwor-Frecaut reveals her outlook on the Fed (pre-FOMC), EM strategist Mirza Baig presents his new Emerging Markets Vulnerability and Sce…
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Boris Vladimirov on Macro Volatility, US Yields, and Recession Risks
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Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress, and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those…
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Daniel Rock on How AI Will Reshape Economies
40:53
40:53
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40:53
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks (www.masterworks.art/macrohive) Professor Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelli…
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Martin Lueck On the Scientific Investing, Trend Models and Macro Divergences
39:27
39:27
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39:27
Marty co-founded Aspect Capital, which manages over $8bn in a range of systematic investment solutions. He is the Research Director and oversees the Research Team responsible for generating and analysing fundamental research hypotheses for development of all Aspect’s investment programmes. He currently serves on the Board of the National Futures As…
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Jason Halliwell on Value Investing, Systematic Macro and Carry
44:42
44:42
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44:42
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks Jason Halliwell is the head of GMO’s Systematic Global Macro team and a partner of the firm. GMO is a leading value-oriented asset manager with $60bn under management. Jason joined GMO in September 1999 from Westpac Investment Management where he spent three years in research and development of quantitative …
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