Ep78. China’s Economic Disorder: Overproduction, Oversupply, Overcapacity, oh my!

Disorder

Whether it is solar panels or steel, clothes or tech, many of the world’s manufactures are made in China. But did you know that the Chinese manufacturing sector is not really supply and demand driven and tends to produce far more than the rest of the world demands? Now… with a faltering post-COVID recovery, a housing market collapse, and worsening relationship with the West, is China’s economy in a genuine state of crisis? And could a troubled Chinese economy, unable to be buoyed by the recently announced stimulus, spread more Disorder globally? And what should the US and UK do to contain China’s disordering potential? And how are different approaches to the Chinese economy a key electoral issue in the upcoming US Presidential election?

Jason Pack is joined by Zongyuan ‘Zoe’ Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. Jason and Zoe discuss how China's economic policies – characterized by a motley mix of market-driven and state-controlled elements – have led to both tremendous Chinese excellence in manufacturing and also oversupply. The duo also discuss: the changing US-China relationship, the implications of Chinese overproduction on the global economy, and the role of massive Chinese provincial government debt.

As they Order the Disorder, they suggest how existing institutions like the World Trade Organization could work better, and how to patch up the failing marriage between China and the West.

Producer: George McDonagh

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn

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Show Notes Links

Read Zoe’s article ‘China’s Real Economic Crisis: Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model’ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis-zongyuan-liu

Read more on why ‘China’s economic ills are serious but not incurable’https://www.ft.com/content/553b106c-2bba-4f90-86d6-8496fc9cf902

On the Chinese hacking of Trump and Vance’s phone’s: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/chinese-hackers-targeted-trump-and-vances-phone-data/index.html

For more on China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy? https://theconversation.com/chinas-government-is-about-to-spend-big-on-stimulus-can-it-turn-around-the-countrys-sluggish-economy-241260

To get more on Zongyuan Zoe Liu https://www.cfr.org/expert/zongyuan-zoe-liu

Watch US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns explain The China Challenge https://foreignpolicy.com/live/burns-china-us-competition-diplomacy/

Read George Manus’ piece ‘China’s plan to boost flagging growth is the very definition of economic insanity‘ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/13/chinas-plan-to-boost-flagging-growth-is-the-very-definition-of-economic-insanity

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