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Evan Silva’s Matchups: Conference Championships

 
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Sunday Football

3:00 PM ET Game

Washington @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Eagles 27, Commanders 21

I took the Eagles to cover -4.5 as soon as this spread opened, but it’s since been aggressively bet in Philadelphia’s direction. Deservedly so; Commanders stalwart RG Sam Cosmi tore his ACL in last week’s upset of Detroit, a massive loss against on-fire Eagles DT Jalen Carter. In these clubs’ two regular-season meetings, Jayden Daniels did tag Philly DC Vic Fangio’s unit for a combined 46-of-71 passing (65%), 449 yards (6.3 YPA), and a 6:3 TD-to-INT ratio plus 99 yards rushing. I remain concerned that Philadelphia’s relentless and deep defense will overwhelm overachieving Washington. The Eagles have allowed 23 points or fewer in 13 of their last 14 games. … Philly stymied Commanders early-down banger Brian Robinson Jr. to the tune of 26/87/1 (3.3 YPC) rushing in these teams’ 2024 dates, while pass-game specialist Austin Ekeler’s role tends to grow when Washington plays from behind. The Commanders are underdogs by nearly a touchdown on the road. Through two playoff games, Ekeler has turned 14 carries into 74 yards (5.3 YPC) and secured seven of eight targets for 67 yards. Ekeler to clear 25 receiving yards at -110 odds feels like a sharp prop bet to me.

Early-week reports suggested Eagles top perimeter CB Quinyon Mitchell (shoulder) will play against the Commanders, but Mitchell lasted only nine snaps in last week’s Divisional Round win over the Rams, and Mitchell’s health matters for Terry McLaurin’s NFCCG draw. McLaurin’s regular-season receiving lines against Philadelphia were 1/10/0 and 5/60/1. I’m viewing McLaurin in a boom-bust light here. … Dyami Brown ran firmly ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus in Week 20’s upset of Detroit, out-snapping him 62 to 33. Through two playoff contests, Brown carries stat lines of 5/89/1 and 6/98/0 versus Zaccheaus’ 3/19/0 and 0/0/0 marks. Zaccheaus is battling a hip/groin injury; No. 4 WR Jamison Crowder and No. 2 TE John Bates have gotten more involved at his expense. Brown’s Sunday matchup isn’t favorable, but he appears to have asserted himself as Washington’s clear No. 2 wideout. … This is a #RevengeGame for ex-Eagle Zach Ertz, who caught seven of nine targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in these teams’ two regular-season games. Ertz finished 2024 ranked No. 8 among tight ends in targets (91) and No. 4 among TEs in targets inside the 10-yard line (10).

The Eagles long ago settled on Saquon Barkley as their offensive focal point — Jalen Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes in just two of his last 13 appearances — and no game-plan shift should be anticipated here. In Philadelphia’s two regular-season meetings with Washington, Barkley slammed the Commanders for a combined 55/296/4 (5.4 YPC) rushing line plus 52 yards receiving. Washington has remained plenty vulnerable on the ground in the playoffs, giving up 39/211/2 (5.4 YPC) rushing and 10/90/1 receiving to Bucs and Lions running backs over the last two weeks. Barkley’s matchup is improved by injuries to Commanders DT Daron Payne (knee/finger) and MLB Bobby Wagner (ankle). … Hurts’ box-score results rely on rushing production to a greater extent than any quarterback in the league. He’s reached 240 passing yards in just one of his last 12 games. HC Dan Quinn’s Commanders were middle of the pack in 2024 rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks.

Hurts’ playoff target distribution: A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert 10; DeVonta Smith 8; Barkley 6; Jahan Dotson 2; Grant Calcaterra 1. … The Commanders figure to assign Marshon Lattimore to Brown here, yet Lattimore has been a liability so far in the playoffs, letting up six catches on eight targets for 77 yards and a score. Pass volume is the main obstacle in the way of AJB’s production. He netted regular-season stat lines of 8/97/1 and 5/65/0 against Washington. … In three games since returning from injury, Goedert has consecutive receiving lines of 4/55/0, 4/47/1, and 4/56/0 while logging a 94% postseason playing-time rate. Bucs and Lions TEs combined to catch eight of nine targets for 83 yards and a touchdown against Washington in Weeks 19-20. … Across six appearances since returning from a hamstring pull in Week 14, hyper-efficient Smith has secured 35 of 41 targets (85%) for 393 yards and four TDs. Smith’s ceiling always depends upon the Eagles’ need to throw.

Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Commanders 23

6:30 PM ET Game

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Team Totals: Chiefs 24.5, Bills 23

The Bills and Chiefs have met eight times over the past five seasons — three in the playoffs — and all told Josh Allen is 187-of-299 (62.5%) passing for 2,063 yards (6.9 YPA) with a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio and per-game rushing average of 10.4/56/0.6 against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. These teams are a dead-even 4-4 in those affairs, although K.C. has taken all three postseason contests. Down 2024-25’s stretch, the Bills leaned into a bully-ball approach often featuring six offensive linemen. Their combined run-pass ratio was 80-48 in playoff wins over Denver and Baltimore. I’m anticipating another ball-control design from the Bills at Arrowhead unless they fall behind early, necessitating an Allen-Superman game. … James Cook logged Weeks 19-20 touch counts of 23 and 20 against the Broncos and Ravens after averaging 14.9 touches per regular-season week. High-efficiency role player Ty Johnson and situational breather back Ray Davis aren’t going away, but Johnson managed six touches on a 34% snap rate in Buffalo’s narrow Divisional Round win over Baltimore, while Davis has appeared on 13 offensive snaps in two playoff games. Little stands out positively about Cook’s AFCCG draw, but he should continue to float in the 20-touch range.

Buffalo stayed true to its five-way WRBC and two-man TEBC in last Sunday’s win over the Ravens. At wideout, Khalil Shakir (67%) and Keon Coleman (66%) led the position group in snaps with Mack Hollins (52%), Amari Cooper (34%), and Curtis Samuel (31%) falling in line behind them. TEs Dawson Knox (57%) and Dalton Kincaid (51%) each drew two innocuous targets against Baltimore. … Shakir has separated himself as the Bills’ lone box-score reliable pass catcher, even as his upside is minimal with a 10.7 yards-per-reception average and four touchdowns through 17 games. … My longer-shot DFS/prop bet play here is Kincaid against a Chiefs defense that hemorrhaged an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends this regular season, then coughed up 65 yards on five targets to Texans TEs last week.

Across these clubs’ aforementioned eight dates, Patrick Mahomes is 206-of-301 (68.4%) passing for 2,220 yards (7.4 YPA) with an 18:7 TD-to-INT ratio and 27.4 per-game rushing yards average. Bills HC Sean McDermott’s zone-based defense specializes in preventing big plays, having in 2024 yielded the league’s fifth-fewest 20+ yard completions (43). Injuries to top CB Christian Benford (concussion), slot CB Taron Johnson (shoulder/neck), and SS Taylor Rapp (hip/back), however, threaten the stability of Buffalo’s backend. No remaining team is healthier than Kansas City, potentially positioning Mahomes for a sizable box-score result. … Kareem Hunt out-snapped Isiah Pacheco 24 to 16 and out-touched him 9 to 5 in last week’s Divisional Round win over Houston. Even as Pacheco offers more big-play potential, Hunt has earned lead-back duties as a bankable short-yardage/goal-line weapon who consistently gets what’s blocked on between-the-tackles runs. I’m clinging to Hunt as a largely touchdown-reliant DFS gamble here while maintaining a fade on Pacheco.

No Chiefs pass catcher draws a more favorable AFCCG matchup than Divisional Round hero Travis Kelce; injuries to Rapp and LB Matt Milano (hamstring) are cause for major concern for Buffalo’s middle-of-the-field pass coverage after Ravens TEs Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews combined for nine catches, 134 yards, and a touchdown against the Bills last week. Chiefs No. 2 TE Noah Gray is a DFS tournament sleeper after drawing three targets on a 57% playing-time clip last Saturday. … Kansas City ran out a four-way WRBC in Week 20’s win over Houston; Xavier Worthy (82% snaps) continued to operate as their No. 1 wideout with Marquise Brown (67%) at No. 2, JuJu Smith-Schuster (41%) third in line, and DeAndre Hopkins (31%) surprisingly fourth. … It was Hopkins’ lowest playing-time rate through 11 games as a Chief. … Worthy (4/61/1) paced K.C. in receiving in these clubs’ Week 11 date and has logged a playing-time clip of 80% or better in five consecutive games. … Through three appearances with Kansas City, Brown has secured nine of 17 targets for 91 scoreless yards. Brown’s game tends to rely on long passing plays. His box-score outlook will improve if the Bills play Sunday night’s game without Benford and/or Rapp.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Bills 21

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187 tập

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Manage episode 463094560 series 2788417
Nội dung được cung cấp bởi Establish The Run - NFL Premium. Tất cả nội dung podcast bao gồm các tập, đồ họa và mô tả podcast đều được Establish The Run - NFL Premium hoặc đối tác nền tảng podcast của họ tải lên và cung cấp trực tiếp. Nếu bạn cho rằng ai đó đang sử dụng tác phẩm có bản quyền của bạn mà không có sự cho phép của bạn, bạn có thể làm theo quy trình được nêu ở đây https://vi.player.fm/legal.

Sunday Football

3:00 PM ET Game

Washington @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Eagles 27, Commanders 21

I took the Eagles to cover -4.5 as soon as this spread opened, but it’s since been aggressively bet in Philadelphia’s direction. Deservedly so; Commanders stalwart RG Sam Cosmi tore his ACL in last week’s upset of Detroit, a massive loss against on-fire Eagles DT Jalen Carter. In these clubs’ two regular-season meetings, Jayden Daniels did tag Philly DC Vic Fangio’s unit for a combined 46-of-71 passing (65%), 449 yards (6.3 YPA), and a 6:3 TD-to-INT ratio plus 99 yards rushing. I remain concerned that Philadelphia’s relentless and deep defense will overwhelm overachieving Washington. The Eagles have allowed 23 points or fewer in 13 of their last 14 games. … Philly stymied Commanders early-down banger Brian Robinson Jr. to the tune of 26/87/1 (3.3 YPC) rushing in these teams’ 2024 dates, while pass-game specialist Austin Ekeler’s role tends to grow when Washington plays from behind. The Commanders are underdogs by nearly a touchdown on the road. Through two playoff games, Ekeler has turned 14 carries into 74 yards (5.3 YPC) and secured seven of eight targets for 67 yards. Ekeler to clear 25 receiving yards at -110 odds feels like a sharp prop bet to me.

Early-week reports suggested Eagles top perimeter CB Quinyon Mitchell (shoulder) will play against the Commanders, but Mitchell lasted only nine snaps in last week’s Divisional Round win over the Rams, and Mitchell’s health matters for Terry McLaurin’s NFCCG draw. McLaurin’s regular-season receiving lines against Philadelphia were 1/10/0 and 5/60/1. I’m viewing McLaurin in a boom-bust light here. … Dyami Brown ran firmly ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus in Week 20’s upset of Detroit, out-snapping him 62 to 33. Through two playoff contests, Brown carries stat lines of 5/89/1 and 6/98/0 versus Zaccheaus’ 3/19/0 and 0/0/0 marks. Zaccheaus is battling a hip/groin injury; No. 4 WR Jamison Crowder and No. 2 TE John Bates have gotten more involved at his expense. Brown’s Sunday matchup isn’t favorable, but he appears to have asserted himself as Washington’s clear No. 2 wideout. … This is a #RevengeGame for ex-Eagle Zach Ertz, who caught seven of nine targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in these teams’ two regular-season games. Ertz finished 2024 ranked No. 8 among tight ends in targets (91) and No. 4 among TEs in targets inside the 10-yard line (10).

The Eagles long ago settled on Saquon Barkley as their offensive focal point — Jalen Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes in just two of his last 13 appearances — and no game-plan shift should be anticipated here. In Philadelphia’s two regular-season meetings with Washington, Barkley slammed the Commanders for a combined 55/296/4 (5.4 YPC) rushing line plus 52 yards receiving. Washington has remained plenty vulnerable on the ground in the playoffs, giving up 39/211/2 (5.4 YPC) rushing and 10/90/1 receiving to Bucs and Lions running backs over the last two weeks. Barkley’s matchup is improved by injuries to Commanders DT Daron Payne (knee/finger) and MLB Bobby Wagner (ankle). … Hurts’ box-score results rely on rushing production to a greater extent than any quarterback in the league. He’s reached 240 passing yards in just one of his last 12 games. HC Dan Quinn’s Commanders were middle of the pack in 2024 rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks.

Hurts’ playoff target distribution: A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert 10; DeVonta Smith 8; Barkley 6; Jahan Dotson 2; Grant Calcaterra 1. … The Commanders figure to assign Marshon Lattimore to Brown here, yet Lattimore has been a liability so far in the playoffs, letting up six catches on eight targets for 77 yards and a score. Pass volume is the main obstacle in the way of AJB’s production. He netted regular-season stat lines of 8/97/1 and 5/65/0 against Washington. … In three games since returning from injury, Goedert has consecutive receiving lines of 4/55/0, 4/47/1, and 4/56/0 while logging a 94% postseason playing-time rate. Bucs and Lions TEs combined to catch eight of nine targets for 83 yards and a touchdown against Washington in Weeks 19-20. … Across six appearances since returning from a hamstring pull in Week 14, hyper-efficient Smith has secured 35 of 41 targets (85%) for 393 yards and four TDs. Smith’s ceiling always depends upon the Eagles’ need to throw.

Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Commanders 23

6:30 PM ET Game

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Team Totals: Chiefs 24.5, Bills 23

The Bills and Chiefs have met eight times over the past five seasons — three in the playoffs — and all told Josh Allen is 187-of-299 (62.5%) passing for 2,063 yards (6.9 YPA) with a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio and per-game rushing average of 10.4/56/0.6 against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. These teams are a dead-even 4-4 in those affairs, although K.C. has taken all three postseason contests. Down 2024-25’s stretch, the Bills leaned into a bully-ball approach often featuring six offensive linemen. Their combined run-pass ratio was 80-48 in playoff wins over Denver and Baltimore. I’m anticipating another ball-control design from the Bills at Arrowhead unless they fall behind early, necessitating an Allen-Superman game. … James Cook logged Weeks 19-20 touch counts of 23 and 20 against the Broncos and Ravens after averaging 14.9 touches per regular-season week. High-efficiency role player Ty Johnson and situational breather back Ray Davis aren’t going away, but Johnson managed six touches on a 34% snap rate in Buffalo’s narrow Divisional Round win over Baltimore, while Davis has appeared on 13 offensive snaps in two playoff games. Little stands out positively about Cook’s AFCCG draw, but he should continue to float in the 20-touch range.

Buffalo stayed true to its five-way WRBC and two-man TEBC in last Sunday’s win over the Ravens. At wideout, Khalil Shakir (67%) and Keon Coleman (66%) led the position group in snaps with Mack Hollins (52%), Amari Cooper (34%), and Curtis Samuel (31%) falling in line behind them. TEs Dawson Knox (57%) and Dalton Kincaid (51%) each drew two innocuous targets against Baltimore. … Shakir has separated himself as the Bills’ lone box-score reliable pass catcher, even as his upside is minimal with a 10.7 yards-per-reception average and four touchdowns through 17 games. … My longer-shot DFS/prop bet play here is Kincaid against a Chiefs defense that hemorrhaged an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends this regular season, then coughed up 65 yards on five targets to Texans TEs last week.

Across these clubs’ aforementioned eight dates, Patrick Mahomes is 206-of-301 (68.4%) passing for 2,220 yards (7.4 YPA) with an 18:7 TD-to-INT ratio and 27.4 per-game rushing yards average. Bills HC Sean McDermott’s zone-based defense specializes in preventing big plays, having in 2024 yielded the league’s fifth-fewest 20+ yard completions (43). Injuries to top CB Christian Benford (concussion), slot CB Taron Johnson (shoulder/neck), and SS Taylor Rapp (hip/back), however, threaten the stability of Buffalo’s backend. No remaining team is healthier than Kansas City, potentially positioning Mahomes for a sizable box-score result. … Kareem Hunt out-snapped Isiah Pacheco 24 to 16 and out-touched him 9 to 5 in last week’s Divisional Round win over Houston. Even as Pacheco offers more big-play potential, Hunt has earned lead-back duties as a bankable short-yardage/goal-line weapon who consistently gets what’s blocked on between-the-tackles runs. I’m clinging to Hunt as a largely touchdown-reliant DFS gamble here while maintaining a fade on Pacheco.

No Chiefs pass catcher draws a more favorable AFCCG matchup than Divisional Round hero Travis Kelce; injuries to Rapp and LB Matt Milano (hamstring) are cause for major concern for Buffalo’s middle-of-the-field pass coverage after Ravens TEs Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews combined for nine catches, 134 yards, and a touchdown against the Bills last week. Chiefs No. 2 TE Noah Gray is a DFS tournament sleeper after drawing three targets on a 57% playing-time clip last Saturday. … Kansas City ran out a four-way WRBC in Week 20’s win over Houston; Xavier Worthy (82% snaps) continued to operate as their No. 1 wideout with Marquise Brown (67%) at No. 2, JuJu Smith-Schuster (41%) third in line, and DeAndre Hopkins (31%) surprisingly fourth. … It was Hopkins’ lowest playing-time rate through 11 games as a Chief. … Worthy (4/61/1) paced K.C. in receiving in these clubs’ Week 11 date and has logged a playing-time clip of 80% or better in five consecutive games. … Through three appearances with Kansas City, Brown has secured nine of 17 targets for 91 scoreless yards. Brown’s game tends to rely on long passing plays. His box-score outlook will improve if the Bills play Sunday night’s game without Benford and/or Rapp.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Bills 21

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