Iowa Polls and Prognosturbaturs Specious Speculations

Firing Lane

In this episode Croaky dives into the recent Des Moines Register poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in Iowa, a surprising shift from Trump’s previous 18-point lead over Biden in June. We unpack the implications of this poll, breaking down its methodology, potential motivations behind the sample, and the symbolic appeal Harris might hold for some voters. While some claim this poll is an outlier or influenced, Croaky explains why Selzer & Co.’s reputation suggests otherwise, highlighting that it captures a momentary trend rather than a guaranteed outcome. This episode explores why we should approach polling data critically, especially close to Election Day, and reminds us that, at best, these forecasts offer educated guesses as a matter of sentiment in an unpredictable election landscape.