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Forced Retirement Selling May Disrupt Santa Rally | Zed Francis
Manage episode 346973630 series 3300108
Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022.
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/
Convexitas’ piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/
Convexitas’ piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:33) The Financialization Of Everything
(10:27) Private Markets
(17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained
(19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense
(26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail
(38:41) Stocks and Volatility
(41:53) "Ignore The VIX"
(45:19) Tail Risk
(50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks?
(01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market
(01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen
(01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts
(01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays
(01:26:00) Basis Risk
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
368 tập
Manage episode 346973630 series 3300108
Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022.
--
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/
Convexitas’ piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/
Convexitas’ piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/
__
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:33) The Financialization Of Everything
(10:27) Private Markets
(17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained
(19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense
(26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail
(38:41) Stocks and Volatility
(41:53) "Ignore The VIX"
(45:19) Tail Risk
(50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks?
(01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market
(01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen
(01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts
(01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays
(01:26:00) Basis Risk
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
368 tập
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