How Macro Trading Veterans Are Thinking About 2025 | David Cervantes & DCP

Forward Guidance

In this episode, David Cervantes and DCP join the show to discuss the FOMC post-mortem, the similarities to the 90s business cycle, and managing emotions in markets. We also reflect on the COVID crash, dig into expectations for 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

__

Follow David Cervantes: https://x.com/EconstratPB

David’s Substack: https://substack.com/@pinebrookcap

Follow DCP: https://x.com/Dcpcooks

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

__

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:12) Donnie’s Background

(08:00) David’s Trading Framework

(09:08) FOMC Post-Mortem

(19:19) Fed Guidance & Market Surprises

(21:49) DCP’s Edge

(23:55) New Government Regime

(24:49) Reflecting On Trades

(26:28) Similarities To The 90s

(30:45) Ads

(31:58) Interview Continues

(33:11) So You Want To Be A Trader?

(35:05) We’re Mid-Cycle, Not Late-Cycle

(37:05) Managing Emotions

(40:43) Trading Wisdom

(44:52) Reflecting On The COVID Crash

(51:55) Trading Insights

(53:53) Trading Bonds Vs ES

(59:16) 2025 Expectations

(01:05:15) Trump & The Deficit

(01:07:08) Closing

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.