June 2024 Harvard Harris Poll Debrief

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

The poll was conducted June 28-30, 2024, among 2,090 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating dropped to 40%, his lowest since July 2022, while inflation and immigration remained voters’ top two concerns.

DEBATE HURTS BIDEN, HELPS TRUMP

• 74% of voters think Biden is too old to be President, an 11-point increase after the debate.
• 66% of voters have doubts about Biden’s mental fitness for office, a 12-point increase after the debate.
• Voters are on net 7 points more likely to vote for Trump after the debate and 20 points less likely to vote for Biden.

ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMY WORSEN

• 62% of voters characterize their personal economics as fair or poor, up 7 points from May.
• 52% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among Republican (69%) and rural (63%) voters.
• Biden’s approval on handling inflation dropped to 34%, his lowest in two years.

TRUMP CONTINUES TO LEAD HORSE RACE

• Trump leads Biden by 4 points in the horserace, down 2 points from last month.
• 41% of voters (a plurality) say Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush money case has no impact on their vote, while 31% say they are more likely to vote for Trump and 27% say less likely.
• Marco Rubio and Tim Scott are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Trump.

IMMIGRATION-CRIME NEXUS CONTINUES TO CONCERN VOTERS

• Voters say the top issues caused by mass immigration are an increase in violence/crime (57%), a strain on resources such as healthcare and education (57%), and a rise in homelessness (55%).
• 56% of voters think Biden’s recent asylum ban for migrants caught illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border is “too little, too late.”
• 52% of voters support Biden’s recent executive order aimed at expediting citizenship for the undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens.

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL REMAINS HIGH

• 64% of voters are paying close attention to the Israel-Hamas war, down 9 points from May, but support for Israel remains consistent at 80%.
• 67% of voters say Israel should retaliate against Hezbollah until they stop firing rockets into the north (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 85%).

Download the full results here. As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

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