Turkey enters fray mediating Ethiopia and Somalia's high-stakes dispute

International report

Turkey is stepping up its efforts to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia as tensions rise between the two Horn of Africa nations. This diplomatic initiative is part of Ankara's broader strategy to solidify its growing influence in this strategically vital region.

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan described August's second round of indirect talks in Ankara between his Ethiopian and Somali counterparts as constructive and positive.

"We were able to focus on the details and technicalities of concrete steps that are important convergences on some major principles and specific modalities", Fidan said.

"This constitutes notable progress."

While there was no breakthrough, all sides agreed to meet again in September.

Controversial deal

Ethiopian-Somali tensions have escalated since January, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia.

Under the agreement, Ethiopia would secure sea access in exchange for recognising Somaliland, a deal condemned by Somalia as an infringement on its territorial integrity.

"Ethiopia needs access to a coastline", said Dubai-based geopolitical consultant Norman Ricklefs.

"It’s the second-largest country in Africa. It’s a booming economy. And, somehow, that deal needs to be made, but it’s not going to be easy because of the previous deal earlier this year with Somaliland."

Ricklefs predicts that finding a solution will require considerable diplomatic finesse.

"It’s not going to be easy to convince the Somalis to grant that [Ethiopian demands], feeling that they’re under pressure right now because of the deal that was previously done with Somaliland," he said.

"But I think Turkey is probably best placed, as they have a very close relationship with both Ethiopia and Somalia."

Somalia recently threatened to block access to Ethiopian Airlines in the latest bout of diplomatic tensions. Meanwhile, Egypt could reportedly deploy soldiers to Somalia, a move that threatens to further escalate and broaden tensions, given existing Ethiopian-Egyptian conflicts.

Ethiopia and Somalia move closer to resolving Somaliland dispute

Deepening influence

The situation between Somalia and Ethiopia is expected to be discussed during Wednesday’s summit in Turkey, where Egyptian President Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are set to meet.

Africa expert Elem Eyrice-Tepecikoglu from the African studies department of Ankara’s Social Sciences University said Turkey’s historical and deepening economic and military ties with both Somalia and Ethiopia give it an advantageous position in its mediating efforts.

"Somalia has a very important place in Turkey’s Africa policy. Turkey has established its largest embassy in Somalia’s capital, and it also established its largest military training facility, again in Somalia," said Tepecikoglu.

"But Turkey also has old and established relations with Ethiopia as well. There are several investments of Turkish companies in the country, and Turkey also signed a military cooperation agreement with Ethiopia. Reportedly, Turkish drones were used against the Tigray rebel forces."

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Economic, military stakes

Earlier this year, the Somali parliament ratified a naval agreement with Turkey to protect its territorial waters and a deal to search for hydrocarbons. Turkey is second only to China in investment in Ethiopia, including selling its military-proven drones.

Analysts suggest that there is more than diplomatic prestige at stake for Ankara in resolving Ethiopian-Somali tensions, given the region’s potential and geostrategic importance as a critical world trading route.

"There’s a reason why the Horn of Africa has American military bases and Chinese military bases. The Japanese even have a base in that area. All of them think the Horn of Africa is a pretty significant region for global shipping," Ricklefs said.

"It’s a region that has not been developed. It has hydrocarbon resources and other resources like agricultural resources that have not been developed and would need networks and infrastructure that a country like Turkey could provide if there was security and stability."

Ethiopian and Somali talks are set to resume in September. Success would underline Turkey’s growing influence in a region of increasing international competition, while failure could threaten two decades of Turkish investment in the region.