#69 Why, When & How to use Bayes Factors, with Jorge Tendeiro

Learning Bayesian Statistics

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs, the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call, or get in touch!

A great franchise comes with a great rivalry: Marvel has Iron Man and Captain America; physics has General Relativity and Quantum Physics; and Bayesian stats has Posterior Estimation and… Bayes Factors!

A few months ago, I had the pleasure of hosting EJ Wagenmakers, to talk about these topics. This time, I’m talking with Jorge Tendeiro, who has a different perspective on Null Hypothesis Testing in the Bayesian framework, and its relationship with generative models and posterior estimation.

But this is not your classic, click-baity podcast, and I’m not interested in pitching people against each other. Instead, you’ll hear Jorge talk about the other perspective fairly, before even giving his take on the topic. Jorge will also tell us about the difficulty of arguing through papers, and all the nuances you lose compared to casual discussions.

But who is Jorge Tendeiro? He is a professor at Hiroshima University in Japan, and he was recommended to me by Pablo Bernabeu, a listener of this very podcast.

Before moving to Japan, Jorge studied math and applied stats at the University of Porto, and did his PhD in the Netherlands. He focuses on item response theory (specifically person fit analysis), and, of course, Bayesian statistics, mostly Bayes factors.

He’s also passionate about privacy issues in the 21st century, an avid Linux user since 2006, and is trying to get the hang of the Japanese language.

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Aaron Jones, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, David Haas and Robert Yolken.

Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Links from the show:

• Jorge’s website: https://www.jorgetendeiro.com/
• Jorge on Twitter: https://twitter.com/jntendeiro
• Jorge on GitHub: https://github.com/jorgetendeiro
• A Review of Issues About Null Hypothesis Bayesian Testing: https://pure.rug.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/159021509/2019_26880_001.pdf
• Advantages Masquerading as ‘Issues’ in Bayesian Hypothesis Testing – A Commentary on Tendeiro and Kiers: https://psyarxiv.com/nf7rp
• On the white, the black, and the many shades of gray in between – Our reply to van Ravenzwaaij and Wagenmakers: https://psyarxiv.com/tjxvz/
• LBS #61, Why we still use non-Bayesian methods, with EJ Wagenmakers: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/61-why-we-still-use-non-bayesian-methods-ej-wagenmakers/
• LBS #67, Exoplanets, Cool Worlds & Life in the Universe, with David Kipping: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/67-exoplanets-cool-worlds-life-in-universe-david-kipping/