034 | 2024美国大选日观选指南 2024 Election: What to Watch

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】

本期播客的主题是，如何像一个竞选专家一样看大选出票。

美国大选将在周二举行，周二晚上就开始出票。这期节目，我们来聊聊的唱票和出票过程，为什么有的州出票快，有的州出票慢，有的州先出支持民主党的票，有的州先出支持共和党的票，有的州会半夜扔出天量选票，有的州出票会像挤牙膏一样。外行看热闹，内行看门道，如何从出票的过程中早早就看出今年大选的走势，把握本次大选的动向。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目： https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372

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合作投稿邮箱：[e-mail]

【时间轴】

00:00:42 周六 Ann Selzer 的艾奥瓦民调的指导意义

00:21:39 如何看大选投票

00:25:47 佛罗里达

00:42:17 佐治亚

00:46:57 北卡

00:51:37 宾夕法尼亚

00:56:49 密歇根

01:01:14 威斯康星

01:05:59 新罕布什尔和弗吉尼亚

01:07:59 亚利桑那

01:15:22 内华达

01:27:15 在哪里看大选的实时播报

01:30:37 结语

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者

【 What We Talked About】

America heads to the polls this Tuesday. When the votes start rolling in, can you read the returns like a campaign pro, war room style? In this episode, we’ll talk about the vote-counting process: why do some states report results faster than others? What explains the “blue mirages” and “red mirages” in different jurisdictions? Why do certain states suddenly release a large number of votes in the middle of the night, and why others release results in a slow, steady trickle? For those who know what to look for, the vote-counting process reveals key insights into the election’s direction.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [e-mail]

【Timeline】

00:00:42 How to understand Ann Selzer’s IA poll last Saturday

00:21:39 What to watch for on election night

00:25:47 Florida

00:42:17 Georgia

00:46:57 North Carolina

00:51:37 Pennsylvania

00:56:49 Michgan

01:01:14 Wisconsin

01:05:59 New Hampshire and Virginia

01:07:59 Arizona

01:15:22 Nevada

01:27:15 Where to watch latest update on election

01:30:37 Relax, it’s just another election

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast

【拓展链接】

https://theamericanroulette.com/2024-us-election-swing-states-overview/

https://theamericanroulette.com/ann-selzer-iowa-final-poll-harris-lead/

王浩岚的微信公众号《岚目》https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U9ZrOClRrgjj0nn1DX2FTg

端传媒实时更新 https://theinitium.com/article/2024-us-election-live-blog

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

https://www.nytimes.com/article/election-2024-results-needle.html

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