Hein Goemans - It’s Going to take More Dying and Destruction Before Russia is Prepared to make Deal

Silicon Curtain

After the first anniversary of the full-scale war, a febrile and impatient media is asking the question “when will the war end” with greater frequency. There are many reasons for this – of course a concern for the loss of life, the destruction, and the economic pain. But also, war fatigue, misunderstanding the combatant’s motivations and actions, and a general lack of historical perspective, leading them to misunderstand the mechanics and practice of warfare. My guest this week is Hein Goemans, an expert in war termination theory (in other words, how wars end). He explains that “It’s going to take a lot more dying and destruction before both sides are prepared to make a deal, or even start defining what a deal could like”. So is there any clear end to this war in sight, or are the two sides too far apart, with radically different objectives. ---------- SPEAKER: Hein Goemans, professor at the University of Rochester in the United States. His academic specialism is war termination theory. Hein is a specialist in the politics of war, war termination and territorial disputes. His first book, War and Punishment (2000), and asks what keeps wars going and what makes them stop, and focuses on the role of leaders in war termination – with an empirical focus on World War I. His second book, Leaders, and International Conflict (2011) and focuses on the role of leaders in war initiation, a very relevant area of study in the context of the Ukraine war. Goemans' publications have appeared in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and other publications. Goemans has discussed his work on war termination in the context of the war in Ukraine in articles in The New Yorker and the Monkey Cage as well as in international media, such as the BBC's The Inquiry, Cable News CBC, Euronews, CNN Portugal, France 24, and other outlets as well as in print media such as The Financial Times, Der Spiegel, and Die Zeit. ---------- LINKS: https://www.ft.com/content/b3f7ea51-dcc2-4011-b3ac-45faabdc35c7 Ukraine series: how long will the war last? What history tells us about why some conflicts endure, and others end quickly. https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/ https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691049441/war-and-punishment ----------