#297: Market Update Jan 25 – Markets Brace for RBA Rate Decision, Is Perth’s Boom Over, Rental Pressures Ease & City Folk Flock to Regions

The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

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This week, Mike hosts the monthly market update and kicks off with a segment about Darwin. But, as Cate states, data points don't make a trend line. Darwin's recent performance may be noteworthy, but historical data suggests that Darwin's median property price is still less than what it was a decade ago.
And while talking data, Mike promises our listeners some exciting data on mean reversion, (specifically in relation to Melbourne).... stay tuned!
The Trio unpack the January indices.... is Perth's growth slowing? Melbourne and Sydney's negative median price movement is evident in the data, but does this correlate to what is happening at the coal face.
Cate discusses the month of January, and the challenges that January's data brings. This sunny month is not typically a high-activity month for property, but what is different about 2025? Speculation about interest rate cuts is potentially fuelling some markets, and the Trio are keeping a keen eye on Melbourne's possible change in sentiment.
The combined regions outperformed the combined capitals both quarterly and annually. The Trio unpack some of the reasons why this has occurred of late, and why this may be an ongoing trend.
Rental rates have certainly slowed, and as the rolling annual averages rolls through, it's evident that some cities are no longer applying rental increases currently. Adelaide seems to still be leading the chase, but there is no doubt that the heady days of post-COVID have eased in relation to rental increases. Cate ponders the newsfeed changes too. Daily news about housing affordability has subsided notably.
Rental yields are climbing, but with interest rates sitting above 6%pa,, cashflow neutral still remains elusive. Are buyers still searching for positive cashflow property? The Trio talk about the viability of this, as well as the challenges.
The Westpac consumer sentiment data illustrates what the Trio are experiencing at their individual coal faces. From House price expectations to Time to buy a dwelling, and in particular, Interest rate expectations, the metrics suggest there is a change in the air. Cate says, "The data shows that there is a renewed sense of hope that we'll have easing rates, and an expectation that this will correlate with rising house prices." Mike makes the point that Australians indulging in travel has played a strong part in our economic outlook too.
ANZ Roy Morgan's consumer sentiment chart is a bonus for our listeners and we've popped it in our show notes. The impact of economic and environmental challenges is not lost on the Trio and the chart illustrates consumer sentiment reactions to challenges such as bushfires and various lockdowns.
The conversation around tariffs and US politics is not one that can be avoided. How will our resource-rich property markets respond to some of the recent news from America?
One of the burning discussions is about interest rates. Dave chats about some of the key considerations that the RBA apply when determining whether to move rates. Low unemployment, productivity, currency challenges and inflation are just some of the key items that are being watched.
And the last conversation is about politics and policies... how could 2025's Federal election change things up in the property market?
Cate closes the episode with a reference to the inflation figures, market expectations for a cut, and the implication of the cash rate decision this month. It's a cracking episode and we hope our listeners enjoy!
Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/17/ep-297-jan-2025-market-update/