E38: Resurgence of Prediction Markets, AI Adoption and Complex Financial Systems

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

Player FM - Internet Radio Done Right

15 subscribers

Đã thêm cách đây một năm

Nội dung được cung cấp bởi Natalie Toren, Byrne Hobart, and Erik Torenberg. Tất cả nội dung podcast bao gồm các tập, đồ họa và mô tả podcast đều được Natalie Toren, Byrne Hobart, and Erik Torenberg hoặc đối tác nền tảng podcast của họ tải lên và cung cấp trực tiếp. Nếu bạn cho rằng ai đó đang sử dụng tác phẩm có bản quyền của bạn mà không có sự cho phép của bạn, bạn có thể làm theo quy trình được nêu ở đây https://vi.player.fm/legal.

<div class="span index">1</div> <span><a class="" data-remote="true" data-type="html" href="/series/peak-travel">Peak Travel</a></span>

1
Peak Travel

Hủy theo dõi

cách đây 5 ngày trướccách đây 5d ago

Hủy theo dõi

Hàng tháng+

Travel can do amazing things: broaden horizons, build relationships, and rejuvenate the soul. But often, those experiences come at a cost. This is Peak Travel, a new podcast from WHYY about how travel shapes communities in hot-spots around the world. We’ll share the wonder that comes with exploring new places, as well as the harm that our worst travel habits can cause. And we’ll try to figure out how we can do it better. Each episode transports you to a new destination. You’ll meet the people who call that place home, hear their stories, and come to understand how tourism has changed their everyday lives. Supported by rich, on-location sound from around the world, Peak Travel unpacks the $1.9 trillion travel industry and its impact on people and the planet.

cách đây khoảng một năm trước 1:01:14

MP3•Trang chủ episode

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the resurgence of prediction markets, the balance of sophisticated vs. 'dumb' money, Biden's nomination odds and the impact of AI on software economics.

🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj

---

SPONSORS:

BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achieve your 2024 goals? Start learning a new language with Babbel in just three weeks. Enjoy app lessons, live classes, and podcasts designed for real-world conversations. Get up to 60% off at https://babbel.com/torenberg

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🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining

Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies.

Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw

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Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812

---

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:20) Is this the Polymarket election?

(08:55) Prediction markets

(11:07) Politics and prediction markets

(15:13) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv

(17:48) CrowdStrike and the cost of software failures

(23:39) AI adoption and workplace dynamics

(27:29) Financial systems post-Great Financial Crisis

(35:02) USSR's computer network for economic planning

(40:01) Best performing stock of the last 100 years

(43:22) AI's impact on software and hardware economics

(48:46) Market cycles and political influence

(51:11) Dot-com crash, Y2K, and the housing bubble

(54:28) Stripe and the future of private companies

(59:12) Venture capital vs. Private equity returns

(01:00:49) Outro

---

LINKS:

Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co

---

X / TWITTER:

https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik)

https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)

https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)

81 tập

#Trading #Business News #Business #News #Natalie Toren #Byrne Hobart #Erik Torenberg

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

E38: Resurgence of Prediction Markets, AI Adoption and Complex Financial Systems

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

15 subscribers

published cách đây khoảng một năm trước

Chia sẻ

MP3•Trang chủ episode

🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj

---

SPONSORS:

---

RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:

🎙️1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining

Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034

📈 ECON 102 W/ NOAH SMITH

Keeping econ entertaining - Noahpinion author Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg break down business news and politics every week.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812https://podcasts.apple.com/id1753399812

---

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:20) Is this the Polymarket election?

(08:55) Prediction markets

(11:07) Politics and prediction markets

(15:13) Sponsors: Babbel | Beehiiv

(17:48) CrowdStrike and the cost of software failures

(23:39) AI adoption and workplace dynamics

(27:29) Financial systems post-Great Financial Crisis

(35:02) USSR's computer network for economic planning

(40:01) Best performing stock of the last 100 years

(43:22) AI's impact on software and hardware economics

(48:46) Market cycles and political influence

(51:11) Dot-com crash, Y2K, and the housing bubble

(54:28) Stripe and the future of private companies

(59:12) Venture capital vs. Private equity returns

(01:00:49) Outro

---

LINKS:

Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co

---

X / TWITTER:

https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg (Erik)

https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne)

https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)

81 tập

#Trading #Business News #Business #News #Natalie Toren #Byrne Hobart #Erik Torenberg

Tất cả các tập

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E69: Good vs Bad Bubbles, Stagnation, and Bitcoin [Byrne on Bankless] 1:45:48

cách đây 3 ngày trước1:45:48

1:45:48

In this episode of The Riff , we are releasing a conversation Byrne Hobart had on the Bankless podcast about Byrne's book Bitcoin, exploring the provocative idea that speculative Bubbles—while sometimes destructive—can be powerful drivers of innovation, with examples from history and present-day trends like AI and crypto, ultimately highlighting the value of embracing risk to shape a transformative future. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Bubbles as coordination mechanisms: Byrne argues that certain bubbles are actually productive forces that help coordinate massive resources toward ambitious technological goals that wouldn't otherwise be achieved. Technological clusters in time : Just as certain industries cluster geographically (finance in NY, film in LA), bubbles create "clusters in time" where talent and capital converge to build related technologies Bitcoin and Crypto Evolution: Byrne traces his early interactions with Bitcoin from skeptical commenter to eventual participant. Bitcoin's resilience after Silk Road shutdown demonstrated it had value beyond illegal markets. Great Stagnation and Risk Aversion: Modern society has become increasingly risk-averse, favoring safety, credentials, and incrementalism over bold innovation. Future Frontiers for Bubbles: From space exploration and Mars colonization to crypto, digital property rights, biotech, life extension, energy innovation, and the emerging frontier where AI and crypto intersect, we are still in the early stages of transformative breakthroughs. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co Bankless: https://www.bankless.com/podcast/why-bubbles-are-good-byrne-hobart --- X / TWITTER: https://x.com/BanklessHQ (Bankless) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E68: Chinese Free Trade, AI Managers, and Why AI Art is Art 53:14

cách đây 12 ngày trước53:14

53:14

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological change on global trade, AI’s disruption of senior roles, the debate over AI-generated art, and market dynamics—particularly in live entertainment ticketing—offering a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: US-China Trade Relations: There's an interesting role reversal where China is now championing free trade while the US has become more protectionist. China's Economic Challenges: Demographics are a crucial factor affecting China's economy - an aging population creates financial imbalances. AI's Impact on Work Hierarchy: Contrary to common assumptions, AI might replace senior rather than junior roles. While AI isn't a perfect substitute for mentorship, it provides "synthetic wisdom" without requiring equity stakes. StubHub and Pricing Dynamics: Entertainment businesses operate as "stacks of monopolies" (artists, venues) monetizing layers of perfect competition. AI-Generated Art ("Ghibli-fication"): The massive popularity of Studio Ghibli-style AI image generation demonstrated unexpected demand for AI services. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E67: Hidden X-Risk, Network Effects of Elon’s Empire, and American Hegemony 58:56

cách đây 19 ngày trước58:56

58:56

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore Donald Trump Jr.'s financial leverage of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's shift toward AI existential risks, Elon Musk's strategic decisions with Twitter, potential U.S. recessions, political party shifts, China's AI policy, and the broader impact of these developments on Wall Street and Main Street. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Political Brand Leveraging & Business: Byrne discussed how Donald Trump Jr. is leveraging the Trump brand, noting this follows a pattern where relatives of politicians often engage in business dealings that trade on political connections. High-Stakes Career Choices: They analyzed Dustin Moskovitz's departure from Asana, suggesting it may be motivated by existential AI concerns. Existential Risk Perspectives: Byrne distinguished between "hot apocalypse" scenarios (like nuclear war) and "cold apocalypse" scenarios where societal function gradually deteriorates. Twitter/X and Elon Musk: They discussed how Musk has managed to technically restore Twitter's valuation through financial engineering and leveraging connections between his companies. Economic Policy and Tariffs: Extensive discussion of Trump's tariff strategy as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent policy. Recession Concerns: Byrne explained how markets anticipate economic changes before they appear in employment data, creating apparent disconnects between Wall Street and Main Street indicators. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E66: The Politics of Alex Karp and Palantir, DOGE Breakdown, and AI vs Blogging 56:30

cách đây 5 weeks trước56:30

56:30

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the effects of technological change on media and society, covering topics such as the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: AI and Written Content: The comparison is made to how society adapted to blogging, which was initially viewed as disruptive but was eventually incorporated into mainstream media ecosystems. Media Evolution and Business Models: "Real news" remains the least lucrative part of the news business due to high fixed costs and difficult monetization. On The Washington Post's Strategy: Byrne suggests Bezos might be positioning the Post to serve an underserved audience: center-right libertarians who want economic growth while avoiding both progressive politics and Trumpism. Tech Elites and Government: Tech and government used to be more closely intertwined (semiconductor industry, Apollo program) but have diverged. Foreign Aid and USAID: Argument that programs like PEPFAR (HIV/AIDS relief) have been highly effective in terms of lives saved per dollar. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E65: Bill Gates’s Persona, Against Copying Berkshire Hathaway, and Making the Economy More Like Chipotle 1:01:15

cách đây 7 weeks trước1:01:15

1:01:15

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg examine why Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway can't be successfully replicated today, analyze Bill Gates's public versus private persona, and consider how economic growth manifests as "premium mediocre" options like Chipotle. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Berkshire Hathaway's Unrepeatable Success : Buffett's empire evolved through historical accidents and unique market conditions that no longer exist—trying to copy it today misses what made it special. The Real Berkshire Advantage : While most focus on Buffett's acquisition strategy, Berkshire's true uniqueness is its fee structure—Buffett aligned his incentives by getting rich alongside shareholders, not from carried interest. Gates's Dual Persona : Bill Gates cultivated a humble public image despite being famously combative at Microsoft, demonstrating how business leaders craft public personas that may differ from their actual management styles. The Problem with Reverse-Engineering : Attempting to copy successful models often fails because you're copying what worked in past conditions rather than the underlying strategic thinking. Premium Mediocre Future : If AI drives 10% GDP growth, we might just get more "Chipotle-fication"—consistently good but not exceptional products available to everyone, rather than technological utopia. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E64: US vs China’s Strategies, Uber’s Growth Model, AI Supply Chains 1:03:04

cách đây 8 weeks trước1:03:04

1:03:04

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss technological inflection points and examine how legal frameworks mask continued globalization despite apparent retrenchment, explores US-China dynamics, analyzes AI industry structure and emerging models, and considers Uber's strategic positioning against autonomous vehicles. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Globalization isn't truly reversing, but adapting through legal structures that help bypass trade barriers (like routing Chinese goods through Vietnam) China's economic model succeeded in early growth stages but faces challenges with an over-leveraged real estate sector and declining population Taiwan remains in a surprisingly stable but tense relationship with China despite rhetoric suggesting imminent conflict The AI industry is evolving beyond simple model providers/applications into specialized layers with different data access advantages Financial engineering works well for known variables but struggles with pure research funding due to fundamental uncertainty Uber faces an existential challenge from autonomous vehicles that initially complement their marketplace but could eventually replace it -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E63: OpenAI Deep Research, Elon’s Potential Hostile Takeover, and AI Agent Companies 59:04

cách đây 9 weeks trước59:04

59:04

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological advancements, particularly OpenAI's research, Elon Musk’s $97 billion offer to acquire its controlling nonprofit, and the implications for business, jobs, regulation, and Musk's strategies with X and Doja. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Musk made a $97.4 billion offer to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI. Byrne highlighted that while AI research may be slightly lower quality, it's much faster and valuable for quick, preliminary research. Companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft have significant advantages in developing AI agents due to their access to user data. Byrne argues that traditional justifications for sovereign wealth funds (currency management, resource wealth management) don't apply to the US. Discussion of how X/Twitter has changed under Musk's leadership. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E62: Trump’s Tariffs, Open Source AI Models, and The Future of VR 1:09:29

cách đây 10 weeks trước1:09:29

1:09:29

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the impact of technological advancements on markets and businesses, covering topics like global trade tariffs, political populism, AI's evolving role, open-source vs. proprietary models, stock market trends, and Meta’s investments in the metaverse and AR. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Trump's tariff approach (particularly the proposed 25% on Canadian goods) makes sense as a negotiating bluff but is problematic as long-term strategy. Unlike the US dollar system, China's currency has limited international circulation, affecting their global economic influence. The market reaction to DeepSeek's developments affected both direct AI companies and adjacent sectors. Meta's transition to being more capital-intensive (through AI investments) may actually strengthen their competitive position. Companies like Meta have incentives to commoditize some AI capabilities while maintaining proprietary advantages in others. -- SPONSORS: Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod Vanta: Vanta simplifies security and compliance for businesses of all sizes. Automate compliance across 35+ frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001, streamline security workflows, and complete questionnaires up to 5x faster. Trusted by over 9,000 companies, Vanta helps you manage risk and prove security in real time. Get $1,000 off at https://vanta.com/revolution --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E61: Markets React to DeepSeek, Threads vs X, and Stargate Announcement 1:06:20

cách đây 11 weeks trước1:06:20

1:06:20

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the major disruptions in tech and business driven by AI advancements, examining reactions to DeepSeek's announcements, stock impacts on companies like Nvidia, volatility in AI investments, Meta's Threads, Elon Musk’s influence on X, the role of tech in a politically charged landscape, and how governments could shape industrial strategies to support national champions. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: The announcement of DeepSeek's AI model caused significant market reactions, particularly affecting NVIDIA and other AI-related stocks. Hedge funds' risk management practices, which typically involve reducing exposure across related positions during increased volatility, can amplify market reactions and trigger cascading effects across multiple sectors. While DeepSeek demonstrates impressive optimization with limited resources, US companies maintain advantages in hardware and talent depth, positioning them to catch up with increased investment in AI infrastructure. Discussion of Threads vs. X (formerly Twitter) highlighted the importance of network effects. The $100B-500B AI infrastructure project announcement signals a long-term commitment to AI development, with its massive scale potentially deterring competitors and resembling SoftBank's strategy of over-funding to dominate markets. -- SPONSORS: Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod Vanta: Vanta simplifies security and compliance for businesses of all sizes. Automate compliance across 35+ frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001, streamline security workflows, and complete questionnaires up to 5x faster. Trusted by over 9,000 companies, Vanta helps you manage risk and prove security in real time. Get $1,000 off at https://vanta.com/revolution --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E60: Trump Coin, US Industrial Policy, and TikTok Ban 1:04:24

cách đây 11 weeks trước1:04:24

1:04:24

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the impact of technological change on markets, touching on meme investments, ESG, the rise of meme stocks and coins, Trump’s policies, China’s economic strategies, industrial policy debates, and how these factors could shape the future political and economic landscape. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Trump's recent cryptocurrency launch represents a significant shift in his financial strategy. Meme coins/markets serve as a way to quantify social media competition and turn online engagement into measurable outcomes. China's growth model succeeded in transitioning from low to middle income but faces difficulties reaching high-income status. Japanese 30-year bonds now yield more than Chinese ones, suggesting market expects higher long-term growth in Japan. Bipartisan concerns over TikTok's influence and Chinese ownership, coupled with Trump's reversal on the ban, highlight shifting political coalitions. --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Modern Relationships , where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- SPONSORS: Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod Vanta: Vanta simplifies security and compliance for businesses of all sizes. Automate compliance across 35+ frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001, streamline security workflows, and complete questionnaires up to 5x faster. Trusted by over 9,000 companies, Vanta helps you manage risk and prove security in real time. Get $1,000 off at https://vanta.com/revolution --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E59: Zuck’s PR, The Loneliness Economy, and OpenAI Corporate Structure 1:02:53

cách đây 12 weeks trước1:02:53

1:02:53

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the historical paradigms from agrarian to industrial eras and potential future growth, while also addressing challenges in adopting new technologies like AI, institutional constraints at companies like Meta, post-COVID loneliness, the Scandinavian economic model, China's deflation concerns, and structural issues within OpenAI, all through a mix of personal anecdotes and historical insights. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Historically, economic growth rates have increased roughly 10x during major paradigm shifts (from hunter-gatherer to agrarian to industrial economies). Meta (Facebook) invested heavily in content moderation systems but received limited credit for these improvements. The "Loneliness Economy" describes how COVID-19 increased time spent alone at home, allowing digital platforms like DoorDash, which use detailed user behavior data, to optimize services in ways physical businesses cannot. Jensen Huang's background of early hardship and drive, along with NVIDIA's strategic focus on intermediate goods like GPUs rather than consumer products, played a key role in its evolution from a graphics card maker to a leader in AI hardware. OpenAI's shift from a nonprofit to a for-profit structure highlights the massive capital needs of AI development, similar to how American Express's corporate structure challenges went unaddressed until they became critical, illustrating how organizational issues often get deprioritized during rapid growth. --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Modern Relationships , where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- SPONSORS: Notion 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod Vanta: Vanta simplifies security and compliance for businesses of all sizes. Automate compliance across 35+ frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001, streamline security workflows, and complete questionnaires up to 5x faster. Trusted by over 9,000 companies, Vanta helps you manage risk and prove security in real time. Get $1,000 off at https://vanta.com/revolution --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E58: How Jensen Huang Outpaces Tech Giants w/ Tae Kim, author of THE NVIDIA WAY 1:00:24

cách đây 15 weeks trước1:00:24

1:00:24

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg is joined by Tae Kim, author of The NVIDIA Way, exploring NVIDIA's remarkable journey, culture, and what sets the company apart under Jensen Huang's leadership. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: NVIDIA's success stems from its relentless work culture, emphasis on talent cultivation, and ability to execute at high velocity while minimizing internal politics. The company's "rough justice" philosophy in business partnerships, particularly with TSMC, focuses on long-term relationships over short-term gains. Jensen Huang's unique management style includes a flat organizational structure with 60 direct reports and "top five emails" system for real-time company insights. --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Modern Relationships , where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod -- SPONSORS: 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ --- LINKS : Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co Tae’s newsletter: https://firstadopter.substack.com/ The Nvidia Way: https://www.amazon.com/Nvidia-Way-Jensen-Huang-Making/dp/1324086718 --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/firstadopter (Tae) https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E57: Pod Shops; Contrarian Vibe Checks; Scaling Laws Analysis 1:06:28

cách đây 16 weeks trước1:06:28

1:06:28

This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the pod shop hedge fund model, market cycles, AI pricing models, and the future of AI-generated content, with Byrne offering insights on hedge fund evolution, the current market environment, and AI's impact on entertainment and society. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: Pod shop hedge fund model has evolved to focus on delivering uncorrelated returns rather than just beating market indices, with sophisticated risk management and factor-neutral strategies. Current market conditions suggest we may be entering a period where even as companies grow, stock prices may lag due to multiple compression and slower growth expectations. AI pricing models face interesting constraints around liability and human oversight, with potential ceiling prices influenced by existing enterprise software like Bloomberg terminals. --- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Modern Relationships , where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod --- SPONSORS: 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E56: AI Agents are Coming; China’s Internet; Google Wants to Win 1:02:17

cách đây 17 weeks trước1:02:17

1:02:17

This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss AI's economic implications, the rise of passive investing, gambling markets, and Warren Buffett's early investment tactics, examining how technological advancements shape economic metrics, market dynamics, and industry shifts. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . --- Highlights from the Episode: AI's economic impact may follow a J-curve pattern - initially deflationary as it reduces costs, but potentially inflationary later through increased monetization and energy consumption Passive investing's dominance has natural limits, as price discovery requires active trading, suggesting a possible future cyclical pattern between passive and active investing The gambling industry's evolution may parallel historical vice industries, potentially leading to new social norms and self-regulation before government intervention --- SPONSORS: 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

1
E55: Futarchy, Elon, and Gut Decisions in Business 1:02:30

cách đây 20 weeks trước1:02:30

1:02:30

This week, Erik and Byrne discuss the impact of technological change on markets, debate the feasibility of Argentine-style economic policies in the U.S., discuss government efficiency, payroll costs, and political dynamics, including the potential economic effects of a Trump administration and strategies of figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/da0b923d-7d50-4459-b8e9-d0bf87710da7 — 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse . — RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Unpack Pricing - Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg --- SPONSORS: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102 📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/ --- LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)…

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"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg « » E38: Resurgence of Prediction Markets, AI Adoption and Complex Financial Systems

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Tương tự như "The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg

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"The Riff" with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg « »
E38: Resurgence of Prediction Markets, AI Adoption and Complex Financial Systems