Is Founder Mode Insightful? Plus AI Valuations, Unrealized Gains Tax, and Putin's Telegram

"This Won't Last" with Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg

This is the debut episode of This Won’t Last, a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Founder Mode, the state of VC fundraising, the potential for an unrealized gains tax, and Russia’s influence in Telegram.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

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Links:

Keith’s Recs:

• High Output Management by Andy Grove
• Keith Rabois’ lecture notes from 2013: "How to Operate" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fQHLK1aIBs
• Tesla versus Edison: The Last Days of Night: A Novel by Graham Moore
• Disruptive Innovation by Clayton M. Christensen
• The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin

Kevin’s Recs:

• Dark Wire by Joseph Cox

Logan’s Recs:

• On railroads: Engines That Move Markets by Alistair Nairn
• Wired: “The Kremlin has entered your chat”

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(02:39) Kevin comes back from Burning Man

(04:20) Paul Graham’s Founder Mode

(05:45) Founder mode intuitive for Keith, Pierre Lamond anecdote

(07:00) Keith’s response to kernel of Founder Mode, Andy Grove High Output Management

(08:28) What’s unique about Founder Mode?

(09:13) Manager vs. Founder

(12:57) Founder moral authority

(15:00) Investing in founder driven CEOs

(18:47) State of venture markets

(21:15) Driverless car future

(26:25) Revenue quality in AI valuations

(33:00) New technology disruptive or helpful for incumbents

(35:40) AI in Biotech

(38:44) AI impacting fund AUM

(42:30) AI as the transistor

(43:25) Hurdle to return AI CapEx

(44:30) Unrealized Capital Gains Tax

(47:27) Sweden’s tax vs Norway and corporation tax rates

(54:50) Medicare & Social Security, beneficial tax policies

(1:00:45) Misleading life expectancy stats

(1:02:15) Lina Khan, Antitrust effect on tech industry

(1:10:20) Perplexity shocking Google

(1:12:30) Pavel Durov and Russia’s Influence in Telegram

(1:16:45) Not using TikTok and Telegram, risk in capital in Chinese companies

(1:22:25) Closing

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