Chuyển sang chế độ ngoại tuyến với ứng dụng Player FM !
Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets: Ayesha Tariq
Manage episode 376086756 series 2516750
This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.
Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.
Content Highlights
- The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32);
- Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
- The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
- The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
- The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
- Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
- New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
- Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
- One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).
132 tập
Manage episode 376086756 series 2516750
This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.
Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.
Content Highlights
- The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32);
- Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
- The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
- The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
- The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
- Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
- New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
- Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
- One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).
132 tập
Όλα τα επεισόδια
×Chào mừng bạn đến với Player FM!
Player FM đang quét trang web để tìm các podcast chất lượng cao cho bạn thưởng thức ngay bây giờ. Đây là ứng dụng podcast tốt nhất và hoạt động trên Android, iPhone và web. Đăng ký để đồng bộ các theo dõi trên tất cả thiết bị.