Retail Auto Poised For Strong Finish, F-150 Lightning Production Pause, Is AI out of Training Data?

The Automotive Troublemaker w/ Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier

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With just 2 weekends left in the year, we’re excited to share that the automotive industry is set up for an excellent finish to 2024. Meanwhile, Ford is ramping down its F-150 Lightning production until the new year to meet demand, and Gen Z may just save the malls.

Show Notes with links:

• The automotive industry is gearing up for a solid 2024 finish as inventories stabilize and aggressive year-end deals lure buyers back to showrooms. Analysts remain optimistic about continued momentum into 2025, despite policy uncertainties.
  • Total 2024 sales are projected at 15.8–15.9 million vehicles, a solid increase from 15.6 million in 2023. December’s seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is expected to reach 17.2 million, the highest since 2021.
  • General Motors is likely to hold its position as the top U.S. automaker, with Honda having the most gains, overtaking Stellantis in market share due to Stellantis’ estimated 15% sales drop.
  • Retail leasing activity is up 19% YoY, fueled by record-high EV incentives averaging $8,202 per transaction. EV sales are forecasted to grow 12% in Q4, contributing to the year’s estimated 8% EV market share.
  • Despite falling interest rates (below 7% for the first time in a year), high vehicle prices push average monthly payments to $740—a $15 increase over last year and $150 higher than in 2019.
  • "We’ve gone from ‘wait to buy’ to a new marching cry of ‘buy now before prices and rates climb again,’” says Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive.

• Ford has announced a temporary production pause for its F-150 Lightning until January 6, 2025. The decision reflects a strategic adjustment to align supply with actual market demand as the EV industry navigates a period of slower-than-expected growth.
  • Ford sold 22,807 F-150 Lightnings in 2024, marking an 86% increase from last year. This performance places it well ahead of competitors like Chevrolet’s Silverado EV (5,252 units) and Rivian’s R1T (10,387 units).
  • The pause at Ford’s Dearborn, Michigan plant is designed to prevent overproduction and ensure dealerships are not overstocked with unsold inventory.
  • Ford’s strategy acknowledges that EV adoption is not growing as fast as earlier projections suggested, requiring automakers to balance innovation with market-driven production levels.
  • As a Ford spokesperson explained: "We continue to adjust production for an optimal mix of sales growth and profitability."

• In a talk at the NeurIPS 2024 AI conference, former OpenAI Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever reflected on the foundational 2014 paper that shaped modern AI—and looked ahead to where AI is going next.
  • The era of pre-training is ending as AI is running out of quality internet data, marking the end of "Peak Data." As Sutskever put it, "Data is the fossil fuel of AI."
  • Sutskever says we should expect smarter AI agents, synthetic training data, and models that think more like humans And that future AIs could have true reasoning, self-awareness, and unpredictable decision-making.

Hosts: Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier
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